New mobility comes at a cost

On this week’s Talking Michigan Transportation, conversations about automaker efforts to bring down the cost of electric vehicles (EVs), the impact of the EV pullback on the South and trends in safety.

Joann Muller, the transportation correspondent at Axios and author of their weekly Future of Mobility newsletter, joined the podcast to talk about those issues and more.

Some key topics:

·       Ford’s efforts to make EVs more affordable.

·       How public policy at the federal level will affect the development of autonomous vehicles, which are typically EVs.

·       Safety concerns for robotaxis.

Transcript

Setting The Mobility Agenda

Jeff Cranson 0:07

Hello, welcome to the Talking Michigan Transportation Podcast. Today I'm talking with a frequent guest, Joann Muller of Axios Mobility. She actually writes their future of mobility newsletter and does uh more reporting on everything across the spectrum of automotive developments than anyone else in the business. Uh lots of things to cover today. Um, interested in some efforts by some automakers to make electric vehicles more affordable, uh, what they're trying to do, even as federal policies have created a bit of a lull in the market. Um, how public policy at the federal level will affect the development of autonomous vehicles, which are typically electric vehicles, and what that means to that future, whether it's slowing down and again is just a lull, or whether or not we're going to see that uh roaring soon enough. And then some safety concerns uh related to mobility overall, but especially with uh the advent of more robotaxis on the roads and those kinds of things. So, Joann, as always, has done reporting on all those topics and had a lot of great things to say, and I hope you enjoy the conversation. So, again, I'm with Joann Muller of Axios Mobility. She writes the Future of Mobility newsletter, which is a must-read for uh anybody that's interested in all things going on in the automotive sector today, changes uh fast and furious, and uh, I guess, from my thinking, the hardest working person in automotive journalism. So, thanks for taking time to do this, Joann.

Making EVs Affordable At Scale

Joann Muller 1:44

Good to be here, Jeff. Thanks for having me.

Jeff Cranson 1:46

So, first, I wanted to talk about a story you had a couple of weeks ago about uh automakers and their efforts to make electric vehicles more affordable. There's a lot of headwinds uh at the federal level with the administration policies. Uh, yet some big folks like Ford are still committed to this and they're trying to find ways to get them uh into the homes of middle class people like Ford did in its uh original and in its original incarnation uh more than 100 years ago. So talk about some of those things and how some of the other automakers are doing those things too.

Joann Muller 2:18

Yeah, exactly. So um, you know, the challenge is these are expensive technologies. And the only way that you can make a good solid business out of them is if you have uh you make them at scale. You know, the the automakers are are masters at mass production. But if you're selling EVs in small volumes, they just end up being money losers. So the challenge is to get the costs down so that you can make them affordably uh at mass levels. And so, you know, everyone is doing this. Uh certainly uh GM has been working for some years and they've got a lot of different models coming off the same uh basic platform. Ford is now uh starting over basically on its EV uh efforts, and they uh have designed a low-cost platform uh that will uh mostly produce uh be used for vehicles at the entry level of the market, the lower end. Um so what we're talking about here, the first vehicle is going to be a small or a medium-sized pickup truck. Um, and I think that um, you know, then there will be other versions that come off of that. And the idea is to get the cost of that platform way down. Um, and then they can make them share the the different, they call them top hats, uh different top hats on the same platform, and you can make a lot of money that way in theory.

Jeff Cranson 3:49

What's the mid-size pickup they'd be talking about comparable to now, to um mid-size pickups that that Ford GM Stalinus produced?

Joann Muller 3:58

It probably gonna be a little bit bigger, I think, than the Ford Maverick, which is a hybrid on the market today, maybe ranger size, um, but probably not much bigger than that. They I think they have eventually have plans for another uh uh larger pickup truck that's electric. And forget that plan has gone on and off a couple times.

Jeff Cranson 4:20

Yeah, yeah, but they're talking like $30,000 range, right?

Joann Muller 4:24

So yes, that is the goal to get you know the entry, you know, the starting price. Who who buys the car at the base trim? You know, they always give quote these great low prices, but one once you get you know the the amenities that you want, uh you're paying at least five thousand dollars more.

Jeff Cranson 4:42

Yeah, can you even find a car with just the base trim on a lot? Do you think?

Joann Muller 4:46

Uh, you know, I I have driven a couple of them that are base level for around 25,000 sedans, these are. Uh, and they're not coming from the domestic manufacturers. I'll say that. They gave up on that market a long time ago.

Jeff Cranson 5:00

That makes perfect sense. Um, I think the Michigan, strong Michigan connection there, obviously, besides Ford, um, is that the batteries for this would be produced at the new plant, the blue oval plant they're building near Marshall. Is that right?

Ford’s Low‑Cost Platform And LFP

Joann Muller 5:14

That's correct. Yeah, those batteries, they're already producing batteries there. Those batteries will uh go into uh this vehicle. Um, and they are uh a low-cost chemistry. It's called lithium iron phosphate LFP, and uh it is uh a technology that's been perfected in China. I think it was in uh like everything, it was invented in the United States, uh manufactured production, production was was perfected in in China, and they have all the um all the the uh components and and uh materials that go into it. So Ford said, we need that technology, we're gonna license it from China to put in our own 100% owned Ford plant. So you may recall this was rather controversial. Uh, a lot of people in Washington said, we don't want Chinese uh battery makers here. And Ford had to argue for a very long time and said, This is a Ford plant. Ford employees were licensing technology from a Chinese company so that we can learn how to do it and do it better and take it from there. So this is Ford's gamble. You know, it's uh it's quite interesting. It was controversial, but they won basically, and now they're moving ahead with it. The plant is a little smaller than originally planned. Uh, you may recall the state had provided some incentives based on a number of jobs to be created there. Um, because demand for EVs is lower than expected, they've sort of scaled back the plant a little bit for now.

Jeff Cranson 6:53

But they they didn't bail out completely and they did some pretty hardcore lobbying and negotiations in DC to get it this far. And I think uh I mean it's it's it's impressive what they did to keep things somewhat on track. Do you think that that I mean, Crystal Ball, again, I always ask you this, but um, is there a bet that people will prefer a well-equipped battery-powered car over a gas metal if the price is right? Is is that a good bet, do you think?

Joann Muller 7:18

Uh, I think it could be, yes. Anyone who's driven an electric car will realize uh how much more pleasant it is. Uh, it's faster, it's comfortable, it's well grounded. Uh you know, pardon me? It's quiet. It's quiet for sure. Uh and it's just fun to drive. There are some hiccups that still need to be worked out. Charging is always, you know, the number one thing, but even that has gotten a lot better. So, all things being equal, if you had two $30,000 cars, one that you never had to go to the gas station for, and one that you did, you know, Ford's bet is that you'll go for the electric. And um I personally think it's a good bet, but that's a gigantic asterisk there is that they have to deliver a car that is $30,000 or less, uh, that's electric. And, you know, they have yet to prove they can do that.

Jeff Cranson 8:16

So that still could be a challenge, yeah. Yeah. But I think you hit on another point that has been the stumbling block for for many people, obviously, is range anxiety. And even with Nebby rolling out and having a lot of complications in Michigan and other states, um, they're still committed to the money that was committed during the Biden administration. And I I think a lot of us had gotten the impression that this charger thing was just a huge challenge that was going to take a while to be overcome. But it sounds like there's actually been a lot of progress with uh charger infrastructure.

Joann Muller 8:49

There t really has. And I I think it's important for people to understand that this NEBI program you speak about that was uh under the Biden administration is a very small, small piece of the overall electric charging architecture that's being installed everywhere, the infrastructure rather. And um a lot most of the chargers are being built with private capital. Companies like Evigo uh and uh ChargePoint, Electrify America, these and a lot of other ones. It's it's a very fragmented business. Um, but uh the Nevi, the Nevi chargers you talk about are highway chargers all across America. That's an important security blanket for people to know that if they go on a long trip, there will be chargers. So that's why the Biden administration created that plan. But they know that most people are actually charging either at home or in their neighborhood, uh, you know, at the Walmart or the Meyer parking lot.

Jeff Cranson 9:53

And you've had some reporting on that too, and how uh those those charging hubs have have grown and have like like several ports now, right?

Charging Progress And Private Buildout

Joann Muller 10:01

Yeah, yeah. The size of the charging stations is getting bigger, you know. They used to be maybe two or four, now they're eight, ten, twelve. Tesla has a station out in California that's 164 plugs. It's huge.

Jeff Cranson 10:17

That's incredible.

Joann Muller 10:18

Yeah, it's powered by the sun, too. It's the solar powered, uh, which is yeah, I mean, that's very California, right?

Jeff Cranson 10:25

Right, right, right. Yeah, you certainly couldn't do that here year-round.

Joann Muller 10:29

No, but but it it just shows that there are things you can do, you know, that if you think creatively, uh you can you can solve these problems.

Jeff Cranson 10:39

So while in the in the big picture, uh that charge infrastructure has gotten better, and we saw you know what Ford has committed to, uh, the other side of this coin is some other reporting you've done on how the pullback of EVs has especially been hard on the South.

Joann Muller 10:54

Yeah, well, so when uh so during the Biden administration, uh a lot of incentives were provided for production of uh EV factories and battery factories and components for EVs. A lot of money poured in, almost all of it went to the south, um, because you know, costs are a little lower, especially labor uh is a factor. You know, those plants down there are are non-union. Um, and so those were built in a lot of states that we would consider red states, um, where they might not necessarily favor EVs, but they certainly favor jobs. Uh and so yeah, yeah. And so now uh those states are the ones that are seeing a lot of interruptions or cancellations of factories. And um, you know, that is if it hasn't happened yet, it will be happening uh in those states. So, you know, it's it's uh it just shows how incentives, government policy can really cause big swings in investments. Um, and frankly, a lot of wasted capital because we've seen that's why GM Ford, uh uh Stellantis, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Volkswagen, every one of them has had to make gigantic write-offs on their investments in EV manufacturing. Because the demand wasn't there, and the incentives for EVs you know, taking those away also you know made demand softer than it already was. And so you had all this money put into manufacturing things that nobody wants to buy right now.

Jeff Cranson 12:42

But if you talk to the top brass and any of those companies, people who are thinking about the future and have to look 20, 30, 40 years ahead, they still think that's the future, right? They they don't, this is a lull. This isn't like uh you haven't killed off the concept.

Regional EV Slowdown And Policy Whiplash

Joann Muller 12:57

I I think that's true. That's certainly what you know the car makers are telling me that long term it's still going to be an electrified industry. But you know, I I do wonder how all this will play out, though, because if you think about all the data centers to power AI, uh and the demands, that's like the hungriest beast you've ever seen. And then you add in the electric vehicles and other things that are going electric, you know, like a lot of gas stoves have to go to electric in some states, right? That kind of thing. So our demand for electricity is growing. So the question is, are we gonna how are we gonna produce all that electricity? But the other that we can't forget that this is always something people um miss about electric vehicles, they actually can help with the electric shortage, right? So our cars are parked in parked 90%, 95% of the day. Uh, if you think of them as a giant battery that is supplying energy to the grid rather than drawing energy off the grid, uh, we can use our cars to help manage peak demand. Um, in the afternoon, let's say, when when uh demand for air conditioning and stoves and all that stuff peaks, uh the cars have surplus energy that can be used to power the grid. Now, this at the moment is a very early concept. Um, it is it is being tested widely by GM and Ford and others, mostly in California, but in some other states too, and Texas is one. Um, but this this can happen. And you know, I I do think in the future cars are going to be not just powering our homes during blackouts, but powering our neighborhood all the time.

Jeff Cranson 14:55

You've got an electric storage facility sitting in your garage.

Joann Muller 14:58

Exactly. Yeah, yeah. School buses are another great example, right? School buses need big batteries, but they only drive around for an hour a day, and then they're sitting there. They could power an entire school system.

Jeff Cranson 15:11

Yeah, there's a lot they could do between the morning and the afternoon, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Please stay tuned. We'll be back with more talking Michigan transportation right after this.

MDOT Message 15:25

Even with the best planning, backups and traffic congestion can occur during road construction. This can pose hazardous situations for both motorists and construction workers, particularly when drivers are distracted. Motorists are more likely than workers to be killed or injured in work zone-related incidents. Additionally, the leading causes of all work zone-related crashes are distracted driving and speeding. So it's crucial to do your part in ensuring the safety of both drivers and focusing on your most important task, safe driving. Slow down and stay focused.

Grid Demand And Vehicle‑To‑Grid Promise

Jeff Cranson 16:01

In DC last week, the American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials, uh, Transportation Policy Forum had a lot of discussion about the promise of autonomous vehicles and safety. And uh, I remember writing congressional testimony for the MDOT director back in 2015, so you know, more than 10 years ago, talking about uh the promise of ABs and what it means in terms of lives lost on the roads and the fact that we accept, you know, 30 to 40,000 people dying in car crashes. And we would never accept that if it was the airline industry. Um, and and what it means to people with disabilities and and elderly drivers, you know, the the the independence that can come with that. So it really it really struck me um last week that here we are 10 years later, and we're not quite as far along as I thought we would be. Um, but you know, you've written about that too, and what what Waymo and others are doing with robo taxis and things. And again, I always say whenever there's a crash or close to a crash, it gets all kinds of headlines like, oh, you know, automated vehicle involved in a crash. It's like almost always it was human error, right? It wasn't actually the the the robos, the robots' fault. So talk about that and what your reporting is showing you.

Joann Muller 17:22

Yeah, yeah. Well, I do think we hold robots to a higher standard than humans. Um uh, but um also this is such new technology. We don't know what we don't know. And an example of that just happened last weekend in um Austin, Texas, where sadly there was a mass shooting. Um, and a Waymo robotaxi was on its way to pick up a a passenger in the vicinity and encountered a blocked road and did what it thought it should do, which was make a U-turn, turn around, not go into a dangerous spot. They didn't know what was going on there, they just saw the road was blocked, so it turned around. Well, as it was turning around, an ambulance came up trying to get through to get to the scene, and the robotaxis trained in that situation to stop and yield. Well, it had two competing instructions there make a U-turn or yield. And so what it did was it just stopped crosswise in the middle of the street, and it became the ambulance. It blocked the ambulance and it it blocked the whole street, and it turned out a police officer had to come and in communication with Waymo had to get in, disengage the robot, and drive the car away. This is not something that the algorithms probably anticipated, uh, you know, and uh uh what to do um when there's a mass shooting. Uh it, you know, there was a power outage, a mass power outage in San Francisco, and a bunch of robotaxis just stopped because they didn't know what to do. So we don't know what we don't know until we encounter it. And even though there's a lot of simulation, they try you, they use AI to try to imagine every possible scenario. But they even the best AI system can't imagine everything. So the point is that we are at the first pitch of the first inning with this technology, and it has great promise. It could be a World Series champ, but we but we don't know yet, right? And so um the question is how much are we willing to let to be the guinea pigs as this is being uh rolled out?

Jeff Cranson 19:52

But all things being, you know, somewhat normal, um I what's normal anymore? I yeah, well, I I know that you believe, um, and I believe that if setting aside all those various scenarios that you're talking about everyday driving on the road, a computer is a better driver than a human. We all think we're we're great drivers, but nobody else is. But they don't have road raids, they don't drink, they don't do drugs. I mean, there's all kinds of reasons to think the computer is gonna be a safer driver, right?

Ad Break: Work Zone Safety

AV Safety, Standards, And Edge Cases

Joann Muller 20:24

Yes and no. I mean, I I believe in the promise for sure. And I believe that they can do what we train them to do very, very well. Uh, it's what w robot robocars don't have that humans do have, is common sense, is reasoning. We see things all the time that we have never encountered before. And we figure it out and we make the best possible choice that we can based on what we know. The robots only know what they've been trained, and when they don't know, when they are seeing something they haven't been trained on, they are trained to stop and pull over, and that in itself causes problems. And I think that's what we're seeing right now. Can a robot drive straight down the highway without weaving, without getting distracted? Absolutely, they are well trained to do that, they're even now pretty well trained to drive around your neighborhood. They can see the person with the stroller or the you know, the kid doing something. The child that runs out from behind a couple rows of cars, right? Well, this just happened too, as you know, in California. The but but here's here's where my argument is on that one. Waymo said our car, as soon as we saw the the child who ran out between two parked cars, we slammed the brakes and we hit the child, unfortunately, but we hit them at six miles an hour. We did some AI computations and determined that if a human were driving through there at the same speed, they their reaction time would have been slower and they would have hit the child at 14 miles an hour. What could have happened, you know, if the child is hit at a faster speed? Okay, that's good. But when I drive through a school parking uh school drop-off zone, I'm going much lower than the speed limit. I am looking everywhere. Or I might even, if I don't have to drive through there, I'm gonna take a different route. These are the things that humans reason and use common sense that the robot doesn't. And so Waynebell still has to perfect its system to try to give it some of this common sense, but ultimately humans have superior brains than robots.

Jeff Cranson 22:57

Yeah, no, that's that's a really good point. Um I would only say um that not every driver is you driving more carefully in a school.

Joann Muller 23:07

Oh, totally, totally. Humans are bad drivers. There's I will not disagree on that. But uh they also are they're better at reasoning.

Jeff Cranson 23:19

Yes, I I think that's true. Well, lastly, and this is related to safety, um, because you and I could talk about these things for so long, and I just I love your perspective. But the one that really caught me um was your story about how crashes go up when new music is released. Um talk about that.

Joann Muller 23:37

Yeah. Well, so so some uh Harvard Medical School researchers, uh, you know, everybody knows that smartphone distraction is a thing, but it's very hard to measure in the real world. And so they set out to try to figure out what happens when we know people are probably using their smartphones. And the best proxy for that, they said, was when big uh albums get released by Taylor Swift or Bad Bunny or Drake, whatever. And so they looked at five years of data and they compared the federal uh database for fatal accidents with Spotify downloads over the same period of time, five years, and they found that on the days when big albums were released, streaming went up dramatically, and so did fatalities. You know, that's a correlation, it doesn't necessarily, it's not a causation, but it does make a lot of sense to me.

Jeff Cranson 24:44

Yes, it does. It absolutely does. I don't know what you do about that. I guess you hope that as the the technology gets better for hands-free driving and uh things that people can do so they don't actually have their phones in their hand, which you're not supposed to do when you're driving in most states, including Michigan anyway.

Joann Muller 25:00

Yeah, yeah.

Jeff Cranson 25:00

That reduces that. But Joann, as always, I appreciate it. Um, I want to be sensitive to your time, but I really uh always enjoy these conversations and your insights.

Joann Muller 25:11

Well, thank you, Jeff. Great to be with you.

Jeff Cranson 25:13

I'd like to thank you once more for tuning in to Talking Michigan Transportation. You can find show notes and more on Apple Podcasts or BuzzSprout. I also want to acknowledge the talented people who help make this a reality each week, starting with Randy Debler, who skillfully edits the audio, Jesse Ball, who proofs the content, Courtney Bates, who posts the podcast to various platforms, and Jacke Salinas, who transcribes the audio to make it accessible to all.